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11 December 2021, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #70
IN FOCUS
By Joeana Cera Matthews
The Ukrainian History: Relations with Russia and the EU
Russia - An Unsatisfied Aggravator
Historically, Russia issues ultimatums that it itself would fail to abide by not maintaining the status quo. Commenting on this trend, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in an article for Foreign Affairs writes: “History shows that pledges of neutrality by Ukraine or any other country in the region do nothing to abate Putin’s appetite; rather, they feed it. The best way to respond to such ultimatums is to ignore them altogether.” Russian aggression in Ukraine is termed to have created the ‘greatest security crisis in Europe since the Cold War.’
Following the Euromaidan protests, Russia’s intention behind opposing Ukrainian accession both into the EU and NATO was quite evident. After the pro-Putin President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych was ousted by Ukrainian citizens via the Euromaidan protests, Putin was left without a player in the country. As Kuleba explains: “With his client out of power and no way to change Ukraine’s orientation from within, the Russian president resorted to violence. In early 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine, occupied Crimea, and launched a deadly war in the Donbas.” Noticing the strategic change in the Ukrainians, the Kremlin, as a last resort now maintains that it is in the best interests of all actors that Ukraine remains neutral and not accede into either the EU or NATO. This was the stance maintained earlier by Ukraine, however, it never deterred the 2014 Crimean annexation by Russia; Moscow, thus, seems unjustified in its demands of Ukrainian neutrality.
Despite the protraction of crises, Russia seems to be playing a game it does not lose. Looking past the opposition that Moscow has against the expansion of NATO, the same implies an opportunity for the Kremlin to veto Ukrainian foreign policy decisions; if NATO denies the accession, Russia would be provided with a fresh chance to better the Ukrainian status quo. Kuleba further adds the unsuccessful attempts at appeasing Russia would be lesson enough to begin considering deterring its aggression. He writes: “The West shouldn’t appease Russia by agreeing to negotiate over NATO, nor should it give Russia the satisfaction of rejecting its ultimatums. Rather, the West should simply ignore them, continuing to hold further rounds of talks while refusing to bow to Putin’s ultimatums on Ukraine and NATO.”
The Ukrainian resolve
Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, has cultural, economic, and political bonds with Russia. During the Cold War period, Ukraine was the US’ ‘archrival’. Second, to only Russia, Ukraine was the most influential of the 15 Soviet republics. The familial ties held by Ukraine and Russia are quite strong with Kyiv sometimes being termed “the mother of Russian cities”. Thus, it is not easy for Ukraine to walk away or release itself from the historical relationship that it shares with Russia. Losing Ukraine, especially to the West, will inevitably affect the superpower image Russia attempts to hold on to.
While Yanukovych was the President, the idea was for Ukraine to be aligned with Russia. After his ousting, the country has seen significant backing for accession into the EU and NATO from civilians and other domestic actors. The resolve portrayed by the Ukrainian public finally led to the goals of EU and NATO membership being included in the Ukrainian constitution in 2018.
Is the West to blame?
In 2008, NATO agreed to the US’ demands to accept and protect Kyiv and Tbilisi, despite the opposition posed by France and Germany at the Bucharest Summit. The West can be accused of its inability to include Ukraine and Georgia in NATO which eventually led to the increased Russian aggression along with the protraction of the crisis. The disappointing factor in the whole ordeal was that neither Russia’s interests were upheld nor those of Ukraine and Georgia. Since then, Russia has been on its guard against NATO forces as the disregard reflected via their 2008 decision concerned the Kremlin. This also led to Tbilisi and Kyiv being vulnerable to the attacks of Moscow, more often than not being “protected” or “aided” by the Western forces.
References:
Dmytro Kuleba, “Don't Sell Out Ukraine,” Foreign Affairs, 11 December 2021.
Jonathan Masters, “Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia,” Council on Foreign Relations, 02 December 2021.
Paul Taylor, “Ukraine: NATO's original sin,” POLITICO, 23 November 2021.
IN BRIEF
By Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan and Padmashree Anandhan
GERMANY
Germany is not in consensus with France’s nuclear energy
On 09 December, Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said: “Germany will oppose French efforts to label nuclear electricity as green energy.” The French government has proposed to build new nuclear reactors and gas as part of green investment. Although Germany is dependent on gas, it has opposed France as it does not see nuclear energy as green. The European Commission is said to reveal the investment rules for nuclear and gas on 22 December. However, a debate is expected to happen between the leaders of Germany and France on the same. (Wester Van Gaal, “Germany tells France: 'nuclear is not green' EU Observer, 10 December 2021)
RUSSIA
Russian Olympic Uniform not to bear the country flag for Beijing Olympics
On 10 December, Russia unveiled the national uniform for the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics 2022 without the country’s tricolour flag. Zasport, couturier for the Russian Olympic Team has revealed the uniforms of red, white, blue and grey. These uniforms were designed with the logo of the Russian Olympic Committee instead of the national flag of Russia. The change in uniforms come due to sanction levied by World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) against Russia for disclosing the doctored laboratory data to international anti-doping authorities that could have aided to recognize drug cheats. (“Russia presents flagless uniforms for Beijing Games,” Reuters, 11 December 2021)
SPAIN
Storm Barra's effects in Spain
On 10 December, a person in Spain was killed when the river Argal burst out of its banks and engulfed part of Spain's Navarre region. The river's overflowing caused landslides that killed the individual who was a resident in the village of Sunbilla. People in the area are kayaking their way around the regional capital of Pamplona as the waters are at waist-deep depth. Storm Barra brought torrential rains in the low-lying regions with thawed snow in the higher altitudes. The storm rains and snow were the cause of the river overflowing. The government in the area had declared a level two flood warning as they predicted the weather to be the same till Saturday. ("Spanish floods claim the first victim as towns are engulfed," BBC, 10 December 2021; Vincent West, "Severe flooding kills one as Storm Barra drenches northern Spain," REUTERS, 10 December 2021)
THE UNITED KINGDOM
Post-Brexit agreement on North Sea fishing catch limits
On 10 December, Britain, Norway and the European Union signed a fishing catch limits agreement in the North Sea for 2022. The agreements come after UK's Brexit and are in line with the catch levels set by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). Britain's Fisheries Minister Victoria Prenti said: "We are confident that this agreement has struck a balance that will benefit both our fishing industry and ensure our marine environment is healthy and viable long into the future,". The agreement aligns with the UK's sustainability goals to protect fish stocks. The UK government has always negotiated for stock management based on a scientific method to protect the countries interest and create a viable marine environment. ("UK, Norway and EU sign agreement on North Sea fishing catch limits," Reuters, 10 December 2021; "UK agrees 2022 fishing catch limits with EU and Norway," GOV.UK, 10 December 2021)
THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
May 2021 cyber attack on Irelands health services
On 10 December, an independent report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) about the cyberattack on Ireland's health services said, the attack had "a far greater" impact than what was expected. The attack in May 2021 affected more than 80% of the Irish Health Service Executive (HSE) IT infrastructure. As a result, thousands of peoples' healthcare was disrupted with all the computers switching off. The attack was perpetrated by a group called Conti, and the ransomware according to the report has been linked to Russian criminal gangs. The report suggested that a "transformational change" was needed in dealing with technology and cyber-security. Even though the attackers gave the decryption key, which allowed the recovery to begin, it took until late September for all the computer services to work. The 157 report still says that "The HSE remains vulnerable to cyber attacks that may have an even greater impact". (Gordon Corera, "Irish health cyber-attack could have been even worse, report says," BBC, 10 December 2021; Shawn Pogatchnik, "Weak defences made cyberattack on Irish hospitals easy, experts find," POLITICO, 10 December 2021)